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Weak asset growth, soft margins forecast for banks reporting interim earnings
Analysts are expecting those banks reporting December-half interim results - Commonwealth Bank and Bendigo & Adelaide Bank - to report subdued earnings growth.
Macquarie Equities issued a report last week, saying it expects CBA's result to show soft margins, driven by competition for assets and higher funding costs. Asset growth will be weak.
Macquarie's forecast for CBA's cash earnings is A$3.6 billion – a three per cent increase over the previous corresponding period.
The bank's net interest margin will be down about four basis points because of higher funding costs.
The bank's cost-to-income ratio will rise by 30 basis points to 45.5 per cent as it struggles to rein in costs.
Macquarie is forecasting that Bendigo and Adelaide Bank will report first half earnings of $166.4 million - a 2.6 per cent increase over the previous corresponding period.
Bendigo and Adelaide's net interest margin is expected to fall from 1.84 to 1.83 per cent and cost-to-income ratio rise from 57.7 per cent in the June half to 58 per cent in the latest half.
Macquarie said: "We believe repricing is likely to recoup costs in the second half. Banks will withhold some of the next interest rate cut."
The good news is that dividend payouts are sustainable.
According to Macquarie: "Any increase in bad and doubtful debts will not be enough to be a capital constraint. The big theme is deleveraging, which releases capital and underwrites a sustainable dividend payout."
Commonwealth Bank will report its interim results on February 15, followed by Bendigo & Adelaide Bank on February 20.
National Australia Bank releases a quarterly update tomorrow, followed by Westpac on February 16 and ANZ the following day.
